Friday, September 29, 2006

Here comes Giuliani

I'm beginning to think Giuliani will be the next President. His response to 9/11 gave people a respect for him which is going nowhere. Equally I think he can maintain his liberalism and appeal to the centre without the Republican right becoming too infuriated. These sentiments, from Deroy Murdock via an article by John Derbyshire, suggest why the right will forgive him:

"While prominent Republicans can give more conservative speeches than Giuliani, one would have to reach back to Ronald Reagan for a leader who has implemented more policies dear to the right."

Sen. Clinton has a similar advantage; liberals will forgive her a lot. However, I'm not sure she's as likely a winner as people seem to think she is. I think the Democrats feel burned by their choosing a moderate in order to beat Bush last time around and still seeing four more years of Bush. It might be hard to convince them to swallow that again especially if Clinton is playing conservative and they expect a moderate Republican like McCain or Giuliani.

Even if she does get selected Giuliani should give her a run for her money. He can dissociate himself quite effectively from the public dislike of the Bush administration thanks to having remained somewhat at the margins over the last few years and the underlying Republican electoral strength should not be underestimated. Does the old Clinton charisma come with the name?

McCain is being touted as the future President over here and the Cameron-McCain partnership, as will be showcased at the Conservative Party Conference is already being compared to Blair-Bush or Blair-Clinton. However, it looks to me like McCain's time has passed. Two Bushes and a Clinton covered his political prime, his media honeymoon peaked way too early and his crimes against the Republican movement are far less likely to be forgiven as they were against the party itself in the form of his 'maverick' political compromises with Democrats; disloyalty might lead him to screw the Republican party. Giuliani's crimes on values are less of a problem as they can be kept in line by conservative lobby groups. Derbyshire from the article linked above:

"Speaking personally, if I’m going to be made to eat my greens, I’d prefer it was by a tax-averse, social-libertarian, law’n’order Reaganite with a mild gun-control fetish, than by a socialist-feminist nag with a shady past, or a limousine virtucrat who equates reality, as in “Let’s get real,” with his own opinions. Abortion and gay rights don’t weigh enough to swing my vote. On gun control, I’ll trust the NRA to take care of our Second Amendment rights as capably as they have always done in the past, under administrations of every color. On immigration, I believe that by 2008 the tide will be running so strong for enforcement and restriction that no politician, or Congress, who tries to resist it will be credible with the public. On pretty much everything else, I agree with Rudy."

There are other candidates of course, Mitt Romney might go places, but for the moment these are the three big candidates and Giuliani looks the winner to me.

1 comment:

edmund said...

anyone who thinks kerry was a particularly moderate canddiate was smoking something illegal