tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21959228.post114649250616987957..comments2024-03-28T09:14:52.110+00:00Comments on Sinclair's Musings: Are Europeans becoming extinct?Matthew Sinclairhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05948452770723874618noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21959228.post-1146562709687728912006-05-02T10:38:00.000+01:002006-05-02T10:38:00.000+01:00Well, I must have been doing a different EH475 sin...Well, I must have been doing a different EH475 since I remember that the demographic benefits of immigration were one of the biggest things that Dudley Baines was pushing.<BR/><BR/>I agree that in absolute population terms the fall isn't large (though for countries like Japan and Russia it will be large) but the biggest problem is a rapidlly aging population with few children to pay for them. Current predictions are for an increase of 4-5% in GDP spent on pensions by 2020 --> pretty grim figures.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Also, I think it very unlikely that without some intervention birth rates will rise. What is more likely (though still unlikely) that better healthcare for the elderly and rampant obesity in the 18-35 age bracket lead to one section of society dying in their 40-50s while there are a large number of 80 year olds.<BR/><BR/>In the long run we will need to incentivise people having children (possibly by increasing child benefit). But in the short to medium term we need immigrants because they tend to be younger than the general population and because for one or two generations they have markedly higher birth rates.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21959228.post-1146495511169932312006-05-01T15:58:00.000+01:002006-05-01T15:58:00.000+01:00Timing is a very major issue. For a few decades, m...Timing is a very major issue. For a few decades, marriage ages have increased, coupled with waiting before starting a family. This creates the impression of less fertility than is really true.<BR/><BR/>On the subject of using immigration to solve the problem, shouldn't we give points for beauty, to those that want to come ;)Serfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03298915724856708344noreply@blogger.com